Comments on: Yutu on the Moon and the Cost of Mars http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/yutu-on-the-moon-and-the-cost-of-mars/ Fri, 03 Aug 2018 06:04:06 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.9.8 By: Nelson Bridwell http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/yutu-on-the-moon-and-the-cost-of-mars/#comment-4364 Sun, 15 Mar 2015 20:08:49 +0000 http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/?p=1161#comment-4364 My take on SLS vs SpaceX: SLS is what NASA needs now. It is not the cheapest option, but because NASA is not required by stockholders to make the largest possible profit, cost is a secondary consideration.

If SpaceX can provide a lower cost launch option for NASA in the future, such as an expendable Falcon Heavy in the near future, or a reusable HLV in the distant future, that will be all the better.
In either case, NASA comes out a winner. The only thing that NASA really needs is a realistic, consistent exploration roadmap that is not the pawn of political upmanship and armchair generals.

Five years ago SpaceX was a company with very little to show for itself other than lots of wild promises. Their initial attempts at reusability were embarrassing failures

However, that is no longer the case. They have matured rapidly and are becoming a credible, significant provider of launch services. The rest of the industry has taken notice and has begun to imitate them, down to ULA’s efforts to build suspense by refusing to reveal any details of it’s NGLS until an April announcement.

Time will tell, but bickering about SLS vs SpaceX is probably not the most productive use of our energies.

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By: Nelson Bridwell http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/yutu-on-the-moon-and-the-cost-of-mars/#comment-4363 Sun, 15 Mar 2015 19:49:05 +0000 http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/?p=1161#comment-4363 I tend to think of the regolith dust as an asset rather than a liability because it could eliminate the significant energy that otherwise could be required to blast and break up large rocks prior to an extraction process. All that work has already been done for us by previous meteor impacts. In fact, I suspect that the most favorable location for metal/ceramic extraction processes might be places that have the loosest, deepest layers of regolith so that minimum transport of feedstock would be required.

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By: Nelson Bridwell http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/yutu-on-the-moon-and-the-cost-of-mars/#comment-4362 Sun, 15 Mar 2015 19:21:52 +0000 http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/?p=1161#comment-4362 Bill: I tend to agree with you that people underestimate the massive infrastructure that is required in order to manufacture certain components such as semiconductors. That is why we should focus first on lunar manufacturing of low-tech, high mass components such as structural members, wire, motors, Stirling engines, … 19th century technology.
As far as people, because the Moon is only about one light-second away, I think that we will want to remotely operate as much as we can from the Earth. About the only absolute necessity for basing people on the Moon would be for service operations (like Hubble repairs) that require fine-motor-skills. And if we can do surgery with robots, I suspect that we should be able to eventually perform most service operations remotely, too.
We will want people up on the Moon at some point, but I think that we should first concentrate on remotely creating a substantial infrastructure.

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By: Glenn W. Smith http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/yutu-on-the-moon-and-the-cost-of-mars/#comment-4361 Sun, 15 Mar 2015 18:16:00 +0000 http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/?p=1161#comment-4361 Nelson,

Since you have asked specifically about solar thermal production of lunar glasses, I provide you with this link to an article by yours truly:

http://www.portaltotheuniverse.org/blogs/posts/view/357925/

Regards,
G. W. (Glenn) Smith

P.S. Yes, I am apparently one of two Glenn Smith’s involved with this blog — and I humbly yield place of precedence to the other, O. Glenn Smith, since he is Dr. Spudis’ collaborator!

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By: billgamesh http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/yutu-on-the-moon-and-the-cost-of-mars/#comment-4360 Sun, 15 Mar 2015 07:16:03 +0000 http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/?p=1161#comment-4360 Speaking as a former field soldier/operator/mechanic and aircraft technician/aircrewman, it is my considered if not expert opinion that any type of industry on the Moon will first require very large production floors on the scale of sports arenas. I have been on tours of different factories/shipyards while attending technical schools. The need for these very large underground or partially underground with overhead radiation shield facilities is that everything normally associated with widely dispersed terrestrial manufacturing will have to be concentrated in a few locations. Having done a little research and seen first hand some excavation sites the way for this to happen on the Moon is probably going to be either building on natural impact craters or using explosives or a combination of both. I was not real impressed with the tunneling project I followed while living in Seattle. The machine is still broke as far as I know.

Manufacturing things like solar panels and refining and fabricating metal alloy components takes human technicians- hundreds of them. No way around it. All this 3-D printing talk is fine if you have high quality stock- but creating that stock and making larger items takes a factory. The best first project in my view that can be undertaken is in orbit using robot landers to harvest and bring water up to wet workshops.

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By: billgamesh http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/yutu-on-the-moon-and-the-cost-of-mars/#comment-4359 Sun, 15 Mar 2015 01:21:05 +0000 http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/?p=1161#comment-4359 “-the cheapest way to travel between the Earth and Mars-”

I am a follower of Gerard K. O’Neill and as such I believe the Moon is the first place to go and exploiting lunar resources to power civilization on planet Earth- and eventually acquire new lebensraum in space- is the prize.

The two central concepts of O’Neill’s vision were Solar Power Satellites built with lunar resources and the conclusion there are no bodies in the solar system suitable for colonization leaving artificial hollow moons constructed from lunar resources as the answer.

These concepts are completely contrary to the popular culture hype spread by NewSpace advocates over the last several years. A vast state-run public works project using super-heavy lift vehicles to return to the Moon is the NewSpace nightmare. So….I have to speak out when words like “cheapest” and dead end goals like LEO space stations and missions to Mars are discussed.

I want to explore Titan and the subsurface oceans of the gas giant moons as much as the next space advocate but first things first. And Mars……not even a good destination.

Mars is a gimmick; mistakenly popularized as “just close enough” to get to on the cheap.
There is no cheap.

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By: Nelson Bridwell http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/yutu-on-the-moon-and-the-cost-of-mars/#comment-4358 Sat, 14 Mar 2015 22:32:42 +0000 http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/?p=1161#comment-4358 I would love for NASA to conduct a Lunar Manufacturing Centennial Challenge where you place your lander/robot in a large vacuum chamber with sunlight and lots of lunar regolith simulant. Your challenge would be to manufacture parts of your initial hardware, where the winner produces the largest mass fraction of his robot in a set period of time. (As part of the challenge, you would demonstrate that the robot would still continue to function for some time with these replacement parts installed.)

If a variety of metals and ceramics can be extracted from regolith then I would think that you could manufacture >90% of the robot (and support infrastructure) mass (structures, wheels, electric motors…), just importing electronic components such as computers, communications, and photovoltaics.

Speaking as a non-expert, I would think that if you wanted to expand a facility that generates electric power and manufactures robots, you could just stay in one place and use the local regolith as the feed-stock.

Also, I am wondering what would be the best way to expand electric power output. Would it be best to make simple reflective solar concentrators and static thermoelectric power generators, or try to manufacture some type of photovoltaics.

This is a technology that could be pioneered and continuously refined here before implementation on the lunar surface.

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By: Joe http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/yutu-on-the-moon-and-the-cost-of-mars/#comment-4357 Sat, 14 Mar 2015 22:18:09 +0000 http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/?p=1161#comment-4357 The Nautilus-X is a design concept, not a design. It is a valid and interesting one, but there have been numerous others over the years (actually decades).

Dr. Spudis’s editorial produced a lengthy list of technology developments required to make long term habitation modules possible. The Nautilus-X and other design concepts would all benefit from these developments, but none of them simply by their existence helps to produce those advancements. Thus they do nothing to change the editorials cost estimates.

The Falcon Heavy discussion has pretty much been had, except to note that a pro Falcon Heavy supporter above (Nelson Bridwell, March 13, 2015 at 8:22 pm) now says he expects the first launch in 2016. That is in keeping with the SpaceX “tradition” that the first Falcon Heavy launch is (like tomorrow in the old song – “always a day away”) always a year away. If it ever does launch look for (in another SpaceX “tradition) its cost to triple.

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By: billgamesh http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/yutu-on-the-moon-and-the-cost-of-mars/#comment-4356 Sat, 14 Mar 2015 08:21:33 +0000 http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/?p=1161#comment-4356 “It’s all a question of scale — how much and what products are needed when.”

Scale is the primary obstacle in Nuclear Pulse Propulsion. Building pulse units small enough and getting a plate or sail device large enough to be efficient outside the magnetosphere are the problems to be solved. Fortunately, large sums have gone into fusion weapon research devoted to making H-bombs as small as possible.

The two options for a pulse propulsion “engine” are a giant parachute-like sail or a big dumb plate. The parachute, or “Medusa” concept, would require very small bombs and would probably not be very durable. It might serve as an interim but the multi-thousand ton monolithic metal plate is where extremely high Isp numbers in the tens of thousands are found because larger bombs can be used. I like to think of them as flying saucers made real.

Fabricating such massive plates on the Moon would open up the solar system to human exploration. Such extremely high velocities would be possible that round trip journeys to the gas giants might take only a few years. There is certainly no shortage of plutonium. Welcome to the 21st century.

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By: billgamesh http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/yutu-on-the-moon-and-the-cost-of-mars/#comment-4355 Sat, 14 Mar 2015 07:51:45 +0000 http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/?p=1161#comment-4355 I suspect the funky falcon faux heavy and Bigelow’s inflatable tents are the basic components NewSpace is hoping to build their LEO tourist empire with. That and using those “escape” systems on the two taxi’s to keep the tents in orbit. This scenario is denied by the various parties so I could be wrong. But since 4000 cheap and nasty satellites and hyperloop transportation seem to be going forward, who is to say what is unlikely anymore? 80,000 colonists on Mars by 2040 also. And Lockheed Martin says they almost have fusion reactors ready. And space elevators are on the way to.

There’s a sucker born every minute.

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