Comments on: Not Vaunted, Not Clever and Not Working – The State of America’s Space Program http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/not-vaunted-not-clever-and-not-working-the-state-of-americas-space-program/ Fri, 03 Aug 2018 06:04:06 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.9.8 By: Warren Platts http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/not-vaunted-not-clever-and-not-working-the-state-of-americas-space-program/#comment-5635 Thu, 08 Sep 2016 14:09:19 +0000 http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/?p=1464#comment-5635 It doesn’t matter where the Parker article was published: it’s out of date. The definitive reference is “Measurements of Energetic Particle Radiation in Transit to Mars on the Mars Science Laboratory” by Zetlin et al. (2013) pubished in Science. They estimate about .66 Sv for a roundtrip radiation dose, which is toward the lower recommended career dosage for female astronauts.

Thus, while there are many reasons Mars should not be the top exploration priority for NASA at this time, radiation is not one of them. Certainly, there is no need for nuclear propulsion to go to Mars. billgamesh/Gary Church is the only person on this planet that thinks that.

The one common ground for Moon and Mars boosters is that cheap lunar water could make possible an abundant, high-energy chemical architecture. E.g., a reusable single-stage MTV launched from L2 with an 11 km/sec delta v could half the transit time to Mars to about 90 to 100 days, and do it fully propulsively. In which case the roundtrip radiation dosage would be more like .33 Sv (or even less, since the LH2 in the fuel tanks is an excellent radiation barrier).

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By: billgamesh http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/not-vaunted-not-clever-and-not-working-the-state-of-americas-space-program/#comment-5634 Thu, 08 Sep 2016 12:39:30 +0000 http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/?p=1464#comment-5634 I would add that despite the technology and resources and “market” for it, Airships did not travel the sky in the thousands. The airship industry failed because of a lack of resolve and poor leadership. While heavier-than-air was there to fill the niche the same does not hold true for space exploration. This then connects to Zubrin’s example of the Chinese Superships and why the populations of North and South America do not now speak Mandarin and Cantonese.

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By: billgamesh http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/not-vaunted-not-clever-and-not-working-the-state-of-americas-space-program/#comment-5633 Thu, 08 Sep 2016 12:33:29 +0000 http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/?p=1464#comment-5633 Well…..before Dr. Spudis shuts this down for another month I guess I should try and make a last meaningful comment about the present situation.

A couple years ago the British airship program was discussed here and I often think about that historical precedent as parallel to the present sad situation concerning space exploration. There are several striking similarities. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imperial_Airship_Scheme

The U.S. public in a sense has been watching a contest between the socialist rocket and the capitalist rocket. It is not a perfect analogy of course. The shuttle happened before the hobby rocket and the SLS has yet to fly. The shuttle was a Saturn V class launch system that only went to LEO and the hobby rocket is not in the same class though hyped as a do-it-all. But the elements of these stories from many different eras are fascinating.

The regulars here know I am slightly left of center and also a SLS supporter and NewSpace critic.
I have stated several times if Musk and Bezos would stop trying to start a LEO tourist empire and focus on lunar landers I would become a NewSpace fanatic.

So I would like to say I am a space enthusiast that does not let politics bias my advocacy. But that would not be completely true. Unfortunately, if “we” do not put our ideologies aside and present some kind of united front then our common interest in space exploration will continue to go the same place it has gone since 1972.

Nowhere.

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By: Joe http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/not-vaunted-not-clever-and-not-working-the-state-of-americas-space-program/#comment-5632 Thu, 08 Sep 2016 12:09:52 +0000 http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/?p=1464#comment-5632 No problem, glad to.

After Dr. Parker paints his bleak picture for space travelers (“I’m not saying going into space is worse than stepping into the core of a nuclear reator, but….”), note this caveat at the end of the last page:

“But on the bright side, researchers are only beginning to explore the biomedical side of the problem. Natural healing processes in the cell may be able to handle radiation doses that accumulate over an extended period, and some people’s bodies may be better at it than others’. If so, the present estimates of the cancer incidence, all based on short, intense bursts of radiation, may overestimate the danger.”

Or in the words of comedian Dennis Miller – “But then again that’s just my opinion, I could be wrong.”

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By: Joe http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/not-vaunted-not-clever-and-not-working-the-state-of-americas-space-program/#comment-5631 Thu, 08 Sep 2016 11:54:41 +0000 http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/?p=1464#comment-5631 “Parker’s article was not published in Popular Science. Try again.”

I believe it was, but do not really care.

If you are saying the article is not your source for your statements on the subject, then it would be both useful and polite to list the source.

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By: billgamesh http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/not-vaunted-not-clever-and-not-working-the-state-of-americas-space-program/#comment-5630 Thu, 08 Sep 2016 11:44:30 +0000 http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/?p=1464#comment-5630 The elephant in the room is shielding and the ice on the Moon is the only practical solution. Due to the mass required to shield a living area for even a minimal crew on a long duration mission the depot solution is a non-starter. Nuclear Thermal Rockets are also a losing proposition because it is hard enough keeping a chemical rocket engine from melting- NTR’s are a dead end.
There is only one viable nuclear system for interplanetary travel.

Depots were always hyped because they were a way to make the evil Super Heavy Lift Vehicle that SpaceX did not have unnecessary. The magical fuel depot made the hobby rocket all that was required to conquer the universe. No cryogenic propellants have ever been stored or transferred in space and, NewSpace propaganda to the contrary, it will not be as easy as putting gas in your car.

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By: billgamesh http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/not-vaunted-not-clever-and-not-working-the-state-of-americas-space-program/#comment-5629 Thu, 08 Sep 2016 11:33:02 +0000 http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/?p=1464#comment-5629 I think “we” can conclude some things:

Humans expansion Beyond Low Earth Orbit is the only “real” accomplishment that has any magic in it for most of “us”.
A rocket with three humans in it flew around the Moon in 1968 and that was the beginning of the first space age and a capsule coming back splashed down in 1972 and that was the end.
The Moon, for a number of reasons, is not just worthy, it is the only destination.
LEO and Mars are dead ends.

The chain of causation is linked in this fashion:
Due to space radiation, massive shielding is required for any long term human presence.
Dipping water out of the shallow gravity well of the Moon is the only practical source for the thousands of tons of water needed immediately and for future needs. Nuclear energy is required to push such water shields anywhere Beyond Earth and Lunar Orbit (BELO) and the Moon is also the only practical location to test, assemble, and launch such nuclear missions. LEO is the worst place.

In terms of colonization, Gerard K. O’Neill ruled out any natural body in this system as an appropriate second home for human kind. Building miles-in-diameter spinning hollow moons from lunar material was, and is, the optimal solution. Not Mars.

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By: Grand Lunar http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/not-vaunted-not-clever-and-not-working-the-state-of-americas-space-program/#comment-5627 Thu, 08 Sep 2016 02:54:41 +0000 http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/?p=1464#comment-5627 Replying here, since the other post has no reply link.

Anyway, many thanks for the link to the source material by Bill.
Learned something new now.

It does bring up other questions.

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By: Warren Platts http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/not-vaunted-not-clever-and-not-working-the-state-of-americas-space-program/#comment-5626 Thu, 08 Sep 2016 02:09:40 +0000 http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/?p=1464#comment-5626 AIAA asked: “Would your administration continue planning to send astronauts to Mars in the 2030s? Why or why not?

Donald Trump full answer: “A lot of what my administration would recommend depends on our economic state. If we are growing with all of our people employed and our military readiness back to acceptable levels, then we can take a look at the timeline for sending more people into space.”

Joe’s interpretation: “That sure sounds like (1) and (2). If you want to push a political candidate there are plenty of political sites. This will be my last comment on this subject.”

There is nothing in there, Joe, that says that Trump will stop manned spaceflight to ISS or the Moon.

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By: Marcel F. Williams http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/not-vaunted-not-clever-and-not-working-the-state-of-americas-space-program/#comment-5625 Thu, 08 Sep 2016 00:35:20 +0000 http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/?p=1464#comment-5625 Sierra Nevada still intends to have a crewed version of the Dream Chaser. After the Orion launch in 2018, there will only be three launches possible for the SLS until 2021. So if NASA decided to use the SLS to launch crews, they would probably have to use the Starliner or the Dragon.

I just added the Dream Chaser as a crew possibility in the 2020s when the RS-25 engines are once again in production.

Marcel

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