Those are all artificial restrictions placed on the SLS system by conscious decisions made by the current administration. Another administration can remove them. That would cost some amount of money to reverse the bad decisions made for the last eight years. However, that amount of money should not be prohibitive.

As far as Blue Origin, they are an associate not yet a subcontractor or a competitor (New Glenn). So they are part of ULA’s proposed solution not yet part of the impetus. ULA’s other work that has been slow roled for many years seems to have been accelerated with ACES first flight in 2018/2019. With ACES comes on-orbit refueling and other items like long duration cryo-storage both technologies which support a robust cis-Lunar architecture based on Lunar water. It is here that most are watching how this develops.

I can see new focus by NASA on the Moon with a new administration as for various reasons the Moon was specifically ignored. However, my concern will be dismantling of earth science portion of NASA to provides funds for new lunar missions (which is really not that much). As if the NASA budget is a fixed amount so it’s a matter how that pie is sliced up.

I see our current space program as a zero sum game where people argue New Space vs. SLS. I see NS providing a role, i.e. Dragon provides LEO up and down capability and has big doors for passing large equipment to ISS. I’ve not followed Blue Origin much, I see DreamChaser some potential but small payload capability but they seem to be taking years before becoming operational. SLS can put huge loads into space but I see it as too expensive (no money for transfer stage, habitat module, lander), too infrequent of only 10 missions from 2018 to 2030 with no landings on the Moon or Mars.

Maybe we can break from ongoing paradigm of chasing Mars. I can see why focus on the Moon as if Mars is the goal then launching everything from fuel and food from the deepest gravity well in the inner solar system is simply not going to work. I guess not many get the Rocket Eqn, but then look at Saturn V. To send something small like the Apollo CSM and LM took something the size of a skyscraper that was mostly fuel. I will continue reading your book, I haven’t intuitively understand yet industrial processes of lunar utilization.

I am still curious why it is only you and Dennis that talk about the Moon when everyone else talks about Mars. I guess they are the ones with money and they don’t want to corner themselves having to come up with excuses why it cannot be immediately allocated to build transfer stage and landers.

I would note that the traditional approach has not resulted in any beyond low earth orbit vehicle being built since 1968. I would further note that two vehicles that could have gone to the Moon are sitting at JSC and KSC. I would additionally note that it was only by the smallest margins that Apollo 16 and 17 did not end up the same way. As a participant, along with Paul in the last two attempts, I see very little reason to have faith in the traditional approach.

Yep. But lower space access costs and higher launcher reliability numbers than what we have seen recently are coming.

Note:

“Con-current with the Liquid fly-back booster research in the late 90s and early 00s CNES along with Russia concluded studies indicating that reusing the first stage was economically unviable as manufacturing ten rockets a year was cheaper and more feasible than recovery, refurbishment and loss of performance caused by reusability.[35]”

From: ‘Ariane 6’ Wikipedia
At: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ariane_6

“ATK proposed an advanced SRB nicknamed “Dark Knight”. This booster would switch from a steel case to one made of lighter composite material, use a more energetic propellant, and reduce the number of segments from five to four.[44] It would deliver over 20,000 kN (4,500,000 lbf) maximum thrust and weigh 790,000 kg (1,750,000 lb) at ignition. According to ATK, the advanced booster would be 40% less expensive than the Shuttle-derived five-segment SRB.”

From: ‘Space Launch System’ at: Wikipedia

Note the potential significant risk and cost reductions for all launchers and boosters, including the core of the SLS and proposed Dark Knight boosters, of:

“Researchers have long known how strong carbon can be when it’s arranged in the right way. Graphene, which essentially an extremely thin sheet of carbon atoms arranged in two dimensions, is ridiculously strong, and the applications for it are growing by the day.”

And, “MIT discovered that by taking many small flakes of graphene and fusing them together they could essentially create a mesh-like structure that, while porous, retained graphene’s amazing strength properties. They used 3D plastic models to test what kind of a structure would be the strongest under pressure, and then arranged the graphene in the same manner. The resulting material is only 5% as dense as steel, but an amazing 10 times stronger.”

And, “MIT envisions the material potentially being used in automobiles, airplanes, and other applications where weight needs to be as low as possible, but strength and rigidity is still of great importance. ”

From: ‘MIT just invented one of the strongest, lightest materials known to man’
By Mike Wehner BGR News January 7, 2017
At: https://www.yahoo.com/tech/mit-just-invented-one-strongest-lightest-materials-known-221206439.html

Everyone is going to be able to tap Lunar resources, help industrialize the Moon, and participate in accelerating the development of Cislunar Space.

Massive amounts of Lunar iron and/or water will be needed for Galactic Cosmic Radiation shielding for large spaceships and robust space stations. Lunar ISRU propellant will be used on the Moon and near the Earth.

Most likely very large and capable Orion or New Orion nuclear pulse spaceships will get built on the Moon and head off across our Solar System.

Maybe even one day soon NASA’s leaders will publicly and clearly tell the world that the resources of the Moon are far more useful for meeting the economic, communication, Space Based Solar Power, technology, and security needs of the Home Planet than anything we could do on Mars in the next few decades.

Time will tell.

However, it is interesting to note you leave out another “new’ space player; Blue Origin (Bezos).

In fact a lot of ULA’s attempted renaissance is due to their joint work with Blue Origin on the new Vulcan Booster (BE3/BE4 engines).

Why was Blue Origin not referenced?

Could not be because of the “bad blood” between Musk and Bezos, could it?

I’m an old anti-war activist. I believe in peace and the international development of the Moon.

Nonetheless, military folks around the world have access to the Internet, can read English, and can fully understand the following:

“Situational awareness in space is a key to successful application of space power
•
At some time in the future, the physical presence of humans in space will be necessary to provide greater situational awareness
•
Technological competence is required to become a space power, and conversely, technological benefits are derived from being a space power
•
Control of space is the linchpin upon which a nation’s space power depends
•
As with earthbound media, the weaponization of space is inevitable, though the manner and timing are not at all predictable.” Page 15.

From: ‘Toward a Theory of Space Power: Defining Principles for U.S. Space Policy’
By James Oberg May 20, 2003
At: http://marshall.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/140.pdf

“There are many advantages to applying photofission for nuclear pulsed space propulsion. Photofission has been demonstrated by readily available sources, such as natural uranium isotopes, lead, and thorium [13] [14]. As opposed to a difficult to regulate neutron flux, photofission is controlled based on the activation of the ultra-intense laser, which can also be remote to the propulsion system [2].”

From: ‘Project New Orion: Pulsed Nuclear Space Propulsion Using Photofission Activated by Ultra-Intense Laser’
By Robert LeMoyne and Timothy Mastroianni
At: http://file.scirp.org/pdf/JAMP_2016041311280742.pdf

There are valuable deposits of “thorium” on the Moon.

Classic Orion or ‘New Orion’ or other types of very large spaceships will most likely eventually be built on and launched from the Moon.

Who will lead in building and using those very large spaceships to explore, colonize, and develop the resources of our Solar System?

Right now, NASA’s leaders have their heads buried deep in some pseudo Martian sand and are not leading America or the world anywhere.

Congressman Bridenstine is trying hard to pull NASA’s leaders out of the pseudo Martian sand. And we should thank him for his efforts to provide some rational space leadership.

The Apollo-Soyuz Test Project in July 1975 was a good beginning for trust building international human space missions.

“The mission included both joint and separate scientific experiments (including an engineered eclipse of the Sun by Apollo to allow Soyuz to take photographs of the solar corona), and provided useful engineering experience for future joint US–Russian space flights, such as the Shuttle–Mir Program and the International Space Station.”

And, “Thus, both sides recognized ASTP as a political act of peace.”

From: ‘Apollo–Soyuz Test Project’ Wikipedia

Will such international missions guarantee the peaceful development of the Moon and the rest of Cislunar Space?

Unfortunately, no. But can such missions be useful in helping to reduce security risks for everyone on the Home Planet?

Yes.

Folks in Congress wisely want SLS and Orion international space missions going to the Moon and tapping its resources.

Presidents, with their confused and sometimes irrational thinking, come and go.

Individuals in Congress, and their aides, can point our space policy in a logical space resource discovering, tapping, and using direction for many decades into the future.

“After discussions with lawmakers, aides, and officials in the aerospace community since then, it has become clear this is no transient movement. Rather, the Moon-then-Mars plan has bipartisan support.”

And, “Every one of NASA’s international partners supports a Moon-first strategy, and there is the risk if NASA shoots for Mars that China or Russia might lead development of some type of lunar colony. Then there is commercialism. Planning missions to the Moon would provide additional business opportunities for a thriving commercial space industry that may see Mars as a step too far for its existing business plans. And finally, there is the potential to make deep space exploration more economical. Lunar miners could tap into ice at the Moon’s poles to provide hydrogen and oxygen propellants to fuel spacecraft for journeys to Mars.”

From: ‘Seeing the end of Obama’s space doctrine, a bipartisan Congress moves in
Democrats and Republicans see the Moon as a pragmatic first step in deep space.’
By Eric Berger – 6/7/2016
At: http://arstechnica.com/science/2016/06/seeing-the-end-of-obamas-space-doctrine-a-bipartisan-congress-moves-in/

“As a result of this workshop, the National Space Society calls upon the Trump Administration to:

1. Re-establish a National Space Council.
2. Establish a thriving space economy as a goal of NASA and implement this goal via public-private partnerships, including the purchase in-space of fuel mined from the lunar surface/asteroids, and the use of commercial services to supply future space projects on and near the Moon.
3. Lead in the construction of a public/private lunar resource extraction base that includes international participation.”

From: ‘National Space Society Presidential Policy Workshop Leaders Urge Incoming Administration to Lead Lunar Base Construction’ (Washington, DC — November 30, 2016)
At: http://www.nss.org/news/releases/NSS-Release-2016-11-30-new-administration.html

We know what we should be doing. The Moon is waiting for us. Let’s start getting ready to build and fully integrate the Moon’s mining and other useful industries with the businesses of our Home Planet.

“Eight years later, as Obama prepares to depart the White House, he leaves the nation in a cloud of disappointment, recrimination, and even paranoia. None of the wars Obama inherited are truly over, and he has started or joined America to several more. If anything, the sense of America’s decline is even more palpable than before.”

And, “Now his own Democratic Party has fallen to new lows in the state legislatures and governors’ mansions across the country. Instead of handing on the executive branch to an ordained successor, he is passing it onto the man who questioned his birth certificate.

If you had left your country and party in such a state, you’d be acting like a petulant jerk, too.”

From: ‘The pathetic end of the Obama era’
By Michael Brendan Dougherty Senior correspondent at TheWeek January 3, 2017
At: http://theweek.com/authors/michael-brendan-dougherty

“For those reasons, not to mention lots of others, your chances of coming up with workable solutions and keeping your people alive – or evacuating them in time to save them if everything goes down the tubes – are a whole lot greater when your colony is only 250,000 miles away, a distance coverable in less than a week, than if it’s 50 million miles away when things are just right every three years.”

From: ‘Mars, Or The Moon? January 5, 2017
At: https://thehayride.com/author/admin/

“He could make some real decisions. He could say, forget about going to an asteroid. We are going to go back to the moon. We’re going to put people on the lunar surface. He could double down on private space companies. He could try to get NASA to stop building its big, massive, new rocket. So new presidents really do have an opportunity to put their mark on NASA and sort of shift its direction.”

http://www.npr.org/2017/01/07/508668009/nasa-faces-the-unknown-in-preparing-for-trump-administration

Basically yet another NewSpace infomercial- and being a democrat I find it disgusting (but not surprising considering the history Musk and Obama have) that public radio is contributing to the SLS-hate campaign.

What really bugs me is suddenly NewSpace infers they are advocating a lunar return.
Anybody who believes that has not been paying attention for the last 6 years.
They are lying like they always do- they will say anything they think will sucker more marks and sleep soundly afterward.
The worst thing that has ever happened to space exploration.