Comments on: Heavy, Man….Heavy http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/heavy-man-heavy/ Fri, 03 Aug 2018 06:04:06 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.9.8 By: The Road to Mars Is Paved in Lunar Rock (Op-Ed) | Florida State Tribune http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/heavy-man-heavy/#comment-1107 Fri, 28 Jun 2013 16:33:11 +0000 http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/?p=334#comment-1107 […] don’t think the hallowed New Space “cheap access” to LEO will save you, either: Those vehicles are too small (their payload is much smaller than 150 tons) […]

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By: billgamesh http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/heavy-man-heavy/#comment-729 Tue, 21 May 2013 14:33:47 +0000 http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/?p=334#comment-729 “For anything aimed at BEO activities (HLV or Orbital Propellant Depot – just to get that side argument off the table) that means a reliable market for extensive activities over an extended period of time in BEO.”

It is not an “aside”; SpaceX is using the concept of the depot to demonize the HLV-with-hydrogen-upper-stages -to-the-Moon-requirement. They are not specifying a storable propellant but rather intimating cryogenic propellants will be stored and used and thus appear to make the classic HLV with cryogenic propellants a waste of money.

Consider the number of Falcon “heavy” flights needed to fill up a depot with storable propellants for a flight to the Moon or beyond. Comparing this number with the number of tons soft-landed on the lunar pole after having flown direct from Earth on a HLV with hydrogen upper stages, it becomes obvious what a ludicrous scam private space is attempting.

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By: Joe http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/heavy-man-heavy/#comment-728 Tue, 21 May 2013 12:09:32 +0000 http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/?p=334#comment-728 s standard statement of work. Additional mission assurance activities or other non-standard services are available for an additional charge. “ It would be interesting to know how much those additional (and needed) services would cost.]]> denniswingo says: May 21, 2013 at 1:09 am

That does not address the issues of launch date and customers.

It does answer where you got your launch numbers (though you might have included the $128 Million figure). The wise buyer always reads the fine print, however. Note the statement directly above the pricing:

“SpaceX offers open and fixed pricing for launch services based on SpaceX’s standard statement of work. Additional mission assurance activities or other non-standard services are available for an additional charge. “

It would be interesting to know how much those additional (and needed) services would cost.

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By: denniswingo http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/heavy-man-heavy/#comment-727 Tue, 21 May 2013 06:09:44 +0000 http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/?p=334#comment-727 How about SpaceX?

http://www.spacex.com/falcon_heavy.php

Interesting that the numbers have recently changed. For up to 6.4 tons to GTO it is $83m dollars and for greater than 6.4 tons it is $128M. Makes a lot of sense considering what Ariane Space or ILS charges for their vehicles.

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By: denniswingo http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/heavy-man-heavy/#comment-726 Tue, 21 May 2013 06:06:02 +0000 http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/?p=334#comment-726 You have now stated twice that the Falcon Heavy has “customers and a flight date” and been asked once for specifics. However you have not responded.

I did respond, you just did not read it.

Here is the manifest.

http://www.spacex.com/launch_manifest.php

It says a Falcon Heavy flight this year. While that is fairly specific, there has been a history of slips. I find it odd that it is so easy to discount something that SpaceX is already working on to fly and say that it will not happen.

Also, their bread and butter market is going to be GEO comsats. They have a better price than the Ariane V and if the vehicle proves out it will be a formidable competitor to the Europeans. SpaceX already has several contracts to fly GEO birds on the Falcon 9 1.1. ESA and Arianespace is specifically designing the Ariane V ME to compete with the Falcon Heavy. They think it is going to fly, what gives you such confidence that it will not?

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By: denniswingo http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/heavy-man-heavy/#comment-725 Mon, 20 May 2013 00:23:07 +0000 http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/?p=334#comment-725 Actually, you are right.

http://www.spacex.com/launch_manifest.php

I thought they had a GEO bird on a Falcon heavy but after talking to my source, they are going to wait until a successful flight to make the decision.

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By: Joe http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/heavy-man-heavy/#comment-724 Sun, 19 May 2013 23:52:10 +0000 http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/?p=334#comment-724 denniswingo says:
May 19, 2013 at 2:47 pm
Considering that the Falcon heavy already has customers and a flight date I am fairly well convinced that it will fly. It is by far an optimal system for exploration, but there are ways to fix that very inexpensively.
Paul Spudis says:
May 19, 2013 at 4:09 pm
What customers and what flight dates?
denniswingo says:
May 19, 2013 at 2:49 pm
The Falcon heavy currently has an advertised launch price of $84m dollars. It has customers and a launch date. That price is competitive with the Ariane V. Elon has just made tons of money in the stock market. What makes you think with such vigor, that they won’t fly?

You have now stated twice that the Falcon Heavy has “customers and a flight date” and been asked once for specifics. However you have not responded.

Given that (according to Space X own website) the Falcon Heavy will depend on the Merlin D engines (not yet flown), presumably the octagonal arrangement new Falcon 9 v.1.1 engine alignment – a new and un-flown entire first stage – and then have to integrate that new first stage into a” three barrel” configuration complete with a cross feed system the “fact” that they have a firm launch date is “very interesting”. What is your source for this assertion?

If they have already signed launch contracts for there as yet non-existent vehicle that is also intriguing. What is your source for this assertion?

The $84 Million launch cost is also interesting. Space X has been advertising (in press releases) the launch cost as $120 Million. So apparently the launch cost of the Falcon Heavy has dropped some 30% (even more amazingly it is now 36% less than what Space X charges under the CRS contract for launches of the current iteration of the Falcon 9). What is your source for this assertion?

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By: Paul Spudis http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/heavy-man-heavy/#comment-722 Sun, 19 May 2013 21:09:39 +0000 http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/?p=334#comment-722 What customers and what flight dates?

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By: Grand Lunar http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/heavy-man-heavy/#comment-721 Sun, 19 May 2013 19:56:00 +0000 http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/?p=334#comment-721 Interesting points to consider.

Here’s another possibility that I found here:
http://www.spacelaunchreport.com/sls2.html

An SDLV with no (large) solids, basically.
The only solid mentioned is the one used already by the Atlas V.

Doesn’t seem as flexible a concept, unless the single stage version of the droppable booster is used for LEO flights.
It may give motive for greater production of expendable RS-25s.

Perhaps one could compare an all liquid SDLV to that of the side-mount SDLV that Spudis often mentions. One may be faster to develope, while the other is lighter in weight and drops an entire contractor chain.

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By: denniswingo http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/heavy-man-heavy/#comment-720 Sun, 19 May 2013 19:50:42 +0000 http://spudislunarresources.nss.org/blog/?p=334#comment-720 What has been “demonstrated” is the ability to rebrand taxpayer funded technology obtained gratis as “innovation.” More bluntly; claiming payment for work they did not do. Not only that but…..well, I can just paste my own canned response (fair enough considering);

I am curious. Exactly what rebranded taxpayer funded technology are you talking about?

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